4 Best Bets at 1pm ET for Falcons vs Buccaneers, Steelers vs Bills, More

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Time 13:00 ET

About the only thing that’s so high on a total is that this game will be played indoors. Still, this is a hefty number for a Vikings squad averaging 21.5 points per game and allowing 20.0 or 41.5 combined – not to mention a Bears squad averaging 16.0 and 19 .3 points (35.3 combined).

The Bears average 20.8 dropbacks per game, and 4.0 of those end up in sacks. That means the clock doesn’t stop often when the Bears have the ball.

When Minnesota has the ball, they’ve played at a fast pace (25.81 seconds per game, third), but that pace drops to league average when they’re seven or more points ahead (28.58, 13th), which is relevant because the Vikings are favorites of 7.5 points. We were also able to see a sleepy version of this Vikings attack that played out in London last week.

Regardless of what the Vikings do on the attack, this is mostly a bet on the Bears’ lack of attacks with Fields at the helm. In Fields’ 14 career starts, Bears are unders 10-4, accounting for a 71.4% coverage ratio. That trend includes a perfect 5-0 mark when the total is above 43.

» Back to the table of contents « Pick Steelers +14 Best Book

Time 13:00 ET

This is a “hold your nose” game, but it will always be profitable to be on the dog’s side with huge spreads like this one. As of 2017, road dogs with more than 13 30-22 (58%) are ATS.

And mutts of +11 or more when the total is 46 or lower are 132-100-2 (57%) since 2003, as it is difficult to build a big lead in what is expected to be a fairly low scoring game will be even for a team favorite at home.

But there are a number of matchup-related reasons to like the Steelers here.

First of all, this has everything to do with a trap game for Buffalo. The Bills come from two immediate, emotional games down the road. After a win over a Baltimore team that could see it again in the AFC Championship Game, it’s only natural to overlook the 1-3 Steelers. And with the Chiefs on deck, it’s only natural for Buffalo to look past the Steelers.

FanDuel Quickslip: Bet Steelers +14

Second, bringing in Kenny Pickett for Mitch Trubisky gives the Steelers attack much more advantage. Although Pickett threw three interceptions on his debut (not all of which were his fault), he completed 77% of his passes, which is even more impressive considering his average throw is 13.2 yards past the line of scrimmage — more than ten feet more than Trubisky’s. average throw this season.

Pickett also adds a hasty element, scrambling three times and scoring twice on the ground on designed runs. He greatly increases the Steelers’ chances of getting back door late.

Third, the Bills are very confused at the moment, which will likely affect not only their on-field performance but their willingness to score late when they have an edge.

The Bills have four players on IR (including half of their elite security duo in Micah Hyde), two more on the PUP list (including Tre’Davious White in the top corner), four players excluded (including the other half of their elite security dupe in Jordan Poyer, and starting TE Dawson Knox), four more listed as questionable (including linebacker Tremaine Edmunds), and a total of eight players who did not train on Friday.

Finally, this is a classic Tomlin place. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 46-24-3 (66%) as an underdog, including 16-8 (67%) against the spread (ATS) as a ‘dog coming off of a loss.

Most impressively, Pittsburgh is 23-7-1 (77%) ATS under Tomlin like a “dog” when faced with an opponent with a better straight record.

» Back to the table of contents « Choose Buccaneers -10 Best Book

Time 13:00 ET

This is a big disappointment for a Falcons team coming off two straight wins and four straight covers.

Click Here: Bet Buccaneers -10 on FanDuel

Atlanta will face off against a motivated Bucs team that faces two straight defeats and its third straight home game. The reason for the Falcons’ unexpected success early this season was their offense, averaging 25.8 points per game, eighth in the NFL. However, they will be without two of their best offensive players in RB Cordarrelle Patterson (IR knee) and TE Kyle Pitts (outside hamstring).

Finishing third in defensive DVOA and sixth in points allowed per game (17.6), the Bucs easily represent the toughest matchup the Falcons attack has seen. Even with Tampa Bay’s offense in the first two weeks of the season, it was able to take two double-digit wins thanks to defense before facing two of the all-time greatest QBs in Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes – and she kept Rodgers and the Packers scoreless to 14 points, including none on their last nine rides of the game.

Although Tom Brady threw for 385 yards and three scores last week, this game should end as Bucs’ best offensive performance to date. The Bucs are finally healthy as far as their stallions go, with WR Chris Godwin and LT Donovan Smith not even mentioned on the final injury report, although Russell Gage and Julio Jones are questionable. Brady should have a field day against a Falcons offense ranked 30th in pressure percentage (14.3%, according to Pro Football Reference).

Since 2003, Brady has been 66-37-2 (64%) off an ATS loss. After a direct loss, he was even better at 43-17 (72%), averaging 6.4 points per game.

That figure includes 8-2 (80%) ATS from a multi-game losing streak with an average coverage margin of 13.6 points per game.

Home teams that made it to the playoffs the season prior to an undefeated ATS team are 65-50-3 (57%) ATS since 2004. And when Brady faces a team that comes into the game with an undefeated ATS record, he is 15-6 (71%), making him the most profitable QB in this spot in our entire Action Labs database.

On average, Brady’s teams have covered the spread in this spot at 7.5 points per game.

» Back to the table of contents « Pick Breece Hall Over 2.5 Receptions (-110) Best Book

Time 13:00 ET

Hall averages 6.8 goals and 3.8 catches per game. Catches should be much higher as he has five drops and a 55.6% catch rate which should drop back to the average (RBs typically catch 75-85% of their targets).

Hall’s role in the passing game is increasing as he saw a season-high 61% participation on the route last week. He faces a defense of Dolphins who have allowed 6.0 receipts per game to RBs, fifth in the league.

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